Despite all the hype and positive buzz surrounding Battlefield 6, it looks like Black Ops 7 is still set to outsell it, and it’s all because of something called “autopilot purchasing,” according to a new report from Alinea Analytics. This isn’t just a simple prediction; the report suggests that the conflict between the two massive FPS franchises has already been decided, thanks to decades-deep consumer habits that are nearly impossible to break.
The report, published in the Alinea Insight newsletter, brings up the idea of “autopilot purchasing”. This is a phenomenon where millions of Call of Duty fans, a lot of them casual players, buy the newest game every single year without a second thought, even if they’ve complained about past entries or are unhappy with the direction of the series. It’s a brand loyalty so strong that even a highly anticipated and well-received new Battlefield release isn’t going to change it.
Battlefield 6 Has to Deal With Gamers Buying Without Thinking
To be fair, Battlefield 6 has been doing great in its own right. The game has over 2.7 million wishlists and has already pulled in around $35 million in pre-order revenue on Steam alone, which is a massive early success signal for the franchise. The beta has been a huge hit, even prompting former Blizzard president Mike Ybarra to say that Battlefield 6 would “boot stomp” Call of Duty this year.
As the Alinea report points out, this “autopilot purchasing” habit is so ingrained in the market that it’s going to take more than just one awesome Battlefield game to break it. It also doesn’t help Battlefield’s situation that Black Ops 7 is a day-one title on Xbox Game Pass. Last year, Black Ops 6 joining the service resulted in the single biggest day for new subscriptions on Game Pass. While Battlefield 6 will also be on a subscription service via EA Play Pro, it’s a much smaller service than Game Pass, which could complicate direct sales comparisons between the two games.
Alinea’s analysts pulled a damning number out of their hat, revealing that 60% of Battlefield 6 beta wishlisters have played a Call of Duty game on Steam. This is a pretty clear indicator that there is a lot of overlap in the fanbases, but even with this, Call of Duty’s sheer market muscle and brand inertia are just too strong to be overcome.
The report also brings up the power of Warzone as a tool to keep players in the Call of Duty ecosystem. The massive install base of the free-to-play battle royale mode acts as a constant, free advertising funnel for the new mainline game. When players are in the Warzone menus, they’re seeing reminders and seasonal events for Black Ops 7.
Battlefield simply doesn’t have that scale of cross-promotion. The relentless content treadmill that Call of Duty is on with new operators, skins, and battle passes every few weeks also keeps it in social feeds and on YouTube year-round. However, things like secure boot definitely don’t help.
Battlefield Needs to Win the War, Not Every Battle
I’m personally with the sentiment that Battlefield 6 doesn’t need to “beat” Call of Duty to be considered a success. The developers themselves have even stressed the same thing. Both games can exist happily alongside each other, serving slightly different demographics.
This “COD killer” conversation has been happening for years, with Battlefield 3, Battlefield 4, and even Battlefield 1 all being touted as the game that would finally dethrone the king. Each time, despite gaining a lot of attention and selling well, none of them outsold Call of Duty globally. The reality, as pointed out in the report, is that Call of Duty’s sales floor is simply higher than Battlefield’s sales ceiling. For example, in 2016, a widely disliked Call of Duty: Infinite Warfare still outsold Battlefield 1, which was considered a high point for the franchise, by millions of copies.
Source: Alinea Analytics
